Tropical forecast is fierce — again

This year's first predictions for the hurricane season, issued Tuesday by a research team in Colorado, are identical to the "very active" outlook for 2006 that most forecasters got very wrong.

This time, however, tropical storm prognosticators say the El Niño climate pattern that blunted last season is gone. In its place, says veteran hurricane scientist William Gray, are conditions much more conducive to a busy 2007 for tropical storms in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

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