Why hurricanes inevitably will be more costly

The unimaginable devastation of Hurricane Katrina emphatically affirmed the frightening future of tropical storms.

If you follow climate issues, you are aware of the debate over what impact worldwide warming had on Katrina in 2005 and what it means for the hurricane seasons to come, a subject we touched on two weeks ago. We will leave that debate to the scientists, whom we are loath to pit against each other.

We can say with some certainty, however, that even if global warming slows, stops or reverses tomorrow, hurricane seasons will become ever more destructive and expensive along the coasts, from Texas to Florida to New Jersey to Cape Cod.

It is a direct result of human activity - oceanside development, that is.

Very simply, more is in the way than ever before.

In raw dollars, Katrina was the costliest hurricane on record, causing more than $80 billion in damages. That price tag was the result not only of the storm's power, but the fact that it occurred in 2005.

But what if the same storm had hit the same areas 35 years earlier, in 1970? We mention that year because it was the beginning of a hurricane-lull period that lasted until 1995. That calm coincided with an incredible building boom along the nation's coasts.

A 1970 Katrina would have cost $32 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars - 2½ times less damage. That figure is based on an analysis, performed at The Inquirer's request, by disaster specialist Roger Pielke Jr.

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