Not just drought, but mega-drought, could be on the horizon

Drought is a normal part of the Great Plains climate.

And climate change will deepen drought's intensity.

"We like to think that drought is an exception. It's not," said Kyle Hoagland, director of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Water Center.

Most of Nebraska was in a drought cycle that persisted from 1999 until it was broken in May. Then Omaha endured its driest June on record.

Dry spells as intense as the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts are recurrent events.

Dune studies indicate a mega-drought destabilized a large portion of the Nebraska Sand Hills about 800 years ago. Similar massive droughts occurred repeatedly over time.

The lesson for the 21st century is one of preparation.

"It's hard to plan for a mega-drought, but we should be better prepared because a Dust Bowl drought could happen again very shortly," said Sheri Fritz, a paleo-climate researcher at UNL.

Climate projections indicate increasing average temperatures during this century for most of the world, including Nebraska and the Great Plains.

Most studies indicate the Plains will dry out during this period of global warming, said Don Wilhite, director of the UNL National Drought Mitigation Center.

Global warming would increase water lost through evaporation and plants and could trigger more, longer and stronger droughts.
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