Monday, March 10, 2008

What to do if everyone can't run for the hills?


The obvious thing to do if a tsunami comes is head for the hills -- as quickly as your feet will take you.

But what about in Bandon, where almost half the people in the area likely to be underwater are older than 65 and may not find it so easy?

What about unincorporated Clatsop County, where two child day cares and two adult care facilities are in the inundation zone?

What about coastal state parks, where thousands of people camping and swimming on any summer day may know little about tsunamis, let alone where to run?

A new analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey examines such vulnerabilities of Oregon coastal cities. It considers how much of each community's area, population and facilities are within an inundation zone, and how large a toll damage may take on each community as a whole.

It also identifies specific points that may be overlooked in standard disaster plans. Local officials say the assessment will help them design effective response plans and explain to residents why it's vital to prepare for a tsunami.

Seaside is identified as by far the most vulnerable city on the Oregon coast. That comes as no surprise to local planners who know that most residents and facilities, including popular hotels, sit on flats exposed to big tsunami waves.

Gearhart, Warrenton, Cannon Beach and Rockaway Beach come next on the list of vulnerable communities.

The makeup and exposure of such cities may have as much to do with how they weather tsunamis as the tsunami itself, said Nathan Wood, a USGS research geographer in Vancouver who completed the analysis.

For instance, many low-income families in New Orleans were exposed to the wrath of Hurricane Katrina in part because they did not have the means to escape. Evacuation plans must be tailored to local conditions, he said, so emergency crews know where and how to help people in long-term care centers, for instance.

"It's not really fair that you'd expect them to react the same way as 20-year-olds who can run for the hills," Wood said.

In the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the proportion of fatalities was greatest among children and older adults.

more from the Oregonian

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